"Cuti Peristiwa" and TIV

Holiday is something almost everybody will look forward. Ad hoc or additional holiday, or “Cuti Peristiwa” as we now getting used to, is even more interesting. Previously, I wrote about how December 2017 were shorter by 2 working days compared to December of any other year before. Some might ask, so what? It is just one or two days lesser.

To public at large, it was nothing. To the automotive industry, especially on market side, it makes lots of different, especially from the perspective of the TIV. Scheduled public holidays are not too bad, but the unplanned holiday could be quite damaging to Sales, especially if it is too often and if declared just before or after the weekend.

In 2017, there were two months that went with these Cuti Peristiwa. First was in April and  second was in September. Trend-wise, the first three months of 2017 was far better, with TIV of almost 141,000 units compared to 131,500 units during the same period in 2016. However, the following three months of 2017 shows a very weak momentum compared to the same period in 2016 with TIV subtracted by 700 units. Despite lower sales in January to March in 2016, the market picked up steadily in April, May and June. In 2017, the trend was totally opposite with sales started to slow down after April.

There was an unplanned holiday declared in April 2017, resulting in working days for the month reduced to 18 days, 3 days shorter than the same period in 2016. The “dominos” of the one day “Cuti Peristiwa” to the market normally lasted for at least two or three months after.

In September 2017, another unplanned holiday was announced to celebrate our winning in the Sea Games that Malaysia hosted. The TIV dropped from 51,700 in August to 41,000 units in September. In 2016, the TIV for September was at 48,100 units. Similarly, although there was growth in October up to December 2017, but the momentum was very weak to match the growth and TIV recorded during the same period in 2016.

It is difficult to explain the exact relationship of the 1 day “Cuti Peristiwa” to the market, other than "it is a holiday". But, trend-wise, that 1 day added to  already a bit too many scheduled holiday did affects the overall performance of the market, unfavourably.

Perodua also suffered the same fate as a result of the unplanned holidays. Since Perodua is a volume player, the impact was even more severe compared to other OEMs. In April 2017, Perodua recorded a subtraction of 5,100 units at 14,400 units from 19,500 units recorded in March. In 2016, 14,900 units were registered in April, lower by just 2,700 from the month before. 


Similarly, though there was a growth post April but the momentum was weaker compared to the same period in 2016. Similar pattern also observed in September 2017 when Perodua only managed to register 14,400 units, a drop of 4,200 units compared to the previous month and 2,700 units lower than the same period in 2016. Worst, the recovery in the following months until year end was somewhat distorted. Typically, 4th quarter result contributes the highest percentage to Perodua annual performance at over 27 percent. In 2017, it only contributes around 26 percent.

For me, apolitical as I wish to be, I have to agree to YAB Tun Dr Mahathir’s recent critic on too many holidays declared "is not good". Or perhaps, in the future, the “cuti peristiwa” should be differed and implemented with sufficient notice and not as ad hoc as it was in the past.