Post Tax Holiday - A Gloomy Beginning

As of 30th September, the Malaysian TIV is expected to close at a new record low at around 31,000 units. Despite the offer to honour the price difference between OTR price with SST and the OTR price with zero-rated GST and higher order bank, most OEMs are experiencing acute shortage in stocks, hence recording a lower registration in September. The momentum of high registration saw in the last three months suddenly ended due to inability to supply by OEMs. 

With short notice given on the introduction of Tax Holiday period, and due to unexpected high demand (including advanced purchases), OEMs were struggling to produce (and import) more, but still insufficient. The manufacturers (including vendors) needs longer time to ramp up production. To add salt to the wound, the recent "historic" Typhoon Jebi that hit Japan also disrupted the shipments of CBUs and components originating from Kobe Port and transiting ports like Hong Kong and Manila.

The TIV is expected to be lowered by 52.0 percent from 65,500 units in August to 31,300 units in September, the lowest since 2007. On the other hand, YTD, the TIV is at 455,000 units or 29,323 units higher than the same period last year; thanks to the strong Tax Holiday registration rally from June to August, 2018 which contributed  cumulative registrations of 199,000 units. 

Proton is expected to close  at 4,500 units in September, a 5,000 units lower than August whilst Honda will see a drop by 5,824 units ending at 4,965 units. Toyota too is recording a lower figure from 6,795 units in August to 3,000 units in September. Cumulatively, YTD, Proton has sold 49,234 units, Honda at 79,916 units and Toyota at 52,634 units by end of September. With the exception of Proton, the other 2 brands are recording a growth compared to the same period last year.

 In-terms of market share, Proton is expected to maintain the same share as August at 14.5 percent and Honda will improve slightly to 15.9 percent from 15.5 percent a month before. Toyota's share is likely to reduce to 9.6 percent from 13.4 percent in August. YTD, Honda is still at number 2 position with 17.6 percent market share and followed by Proton with 13.2 percent share until end of September.

Perodua continue to struggle with its prolong supply issue of Myvi due to the halted production since 13th August. Typically, Myvi contributed almost 50 percent of Perodua's monthly registration. Perodua only managed to register 9,471 units in September, the lowest in 20 years. Due to lower performance of other brands, Perodua continue to hold its number one position with 30.3 percent in September and 37.0 percent YTD at a volume of 168,203 units, an increase of 16,600 units compared to the same period last year. In addition to zero Myvi production, Perodua also started the month with almost zero inventory.

For me, lower TIV for September is expected BUT for different reason. Initially, the industry was worried about the impact due to higher OTR price as a result of the re-introduction of SST. However, with revised formula that saw cheaper OTR prices of some brands and the willingness of some other brands to absorb the increase in prices, the concern on pricing is no longer relevant. Instead, unexpectedly, the stocks now became the biggest challenge. And for Perodua, we are deeply regret and "feel" the frustration and disappointment of Myvi customers. We hope to resolve this as soon as possible. I have no other words for all those waiting for their Myvi, except than saying "we are truly sorry".